Marimaca Copper's New Project Passes Environmental Protection Approval Overnight LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, 2025.11.14

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,937/mt overnight. After touching a high of $11,081/mt early in the session, it fluctuated upward, touched a low of $10,844/mt near the session's end, and finally closed at $10,851/mt, down 0.35%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 321,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 87,650 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 87,920 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward throughout, touched a low of 87,330 yuan/mt near the session's end, and finally closed at 87,400 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume reached 43,000 lots, and open interest reached 200,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 12, Marimaca Copper announced that its oxide copper project in Chile officially passed the review by the Environmental Assessment Service (SEA), marking a key step towards full construction of the company's flagship MOD project. The company stated that obtaining the environmental permit laid an important foundation for subsequent project engineering design, construction preparation, and financing work. According to the latest plan, the MOD project is expected to commence construction in H2 2026. Upon commissioning, it is expected to become a significant medium-sized copper production project in the region, bringing new capacity additions to the future market pattern of tight copper supply.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 13, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 130 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 87,040 to 87,380 yuan/mt. In the early session, SHFE copper fell to 86,930 yuan/mt, then began to fluctuate upward, reaching 87,300 yuan/mt during the morning trading session. The contango structure widened significantly to 60-80 yuan/mt during the morning session, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract exceeded 900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices returned to 87,500 yuan/mt. Downstream procurement was poor, but spot discounts for Shanghai spot copper are unlikely to widen significantly approaching delivery and are still expected to trade around parity.

(2) Guangdong: On November 13, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 5 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 80 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 87,095 yuan/mt, up 435 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 87,010 yuan/mt, up 440 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory declined for the third consecutive day, prompting suppliers to actively hold prices firm, but downstream procurement interest was low, resulting in quiet spot trades.

(3) Imported copper: On November 13, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-52/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$10/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: The futures closing price at 11:30 on November 13 was 87,290 yuan/mt, up 630 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,500-78,700 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,723 yuan/mt, up 412 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,795 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices continued to move higher, many traders engaged in arbitrage between futures and spot markets for secondary copper rod. The narrowing of the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remained limited, leading to a buildup of secondary copper rod in public warehouses, and social inventory of secondary copper rod continued to increase.

(5) Inventory: LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 75 mt to 136,175 mt on November 12. SHFE warrant inventory fell by 131 mt to 43,957 mt on November 13.

Price: On the macro front, the US government reopened after the longest shutdown in history. However, the lack of economic data due to the shutdown raised concerns about an uncertain economic outlook, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting copper prices. In addition, the absence of economic data led the US Fed's hawkish stance to continue sending cautious signals, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts remained contested. On the fundamentals side, supply side, domestic supplies saw concentrated arrivals, leading to ample overall market supply. Demand side, high and fluctuating copper prices continued to dampen downstream purchasing sentiment. As of November 13, SMM mainstream national inventory increased by 5,200 mt from Monday to 201,100 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound at highs today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]